Patrol versus Blockade probabilities

[jadraki]

Okay, so if I am parked over a planet of somebody I don't like (usually House Thulun and Synd Rychart), I might choose to Patrol or Blockade.

What I have noticed is that when I Blockade, I am successful more than half of the time. This seems true for most of my captains above maybe level 20, regardless of skill point allocation etc. but less than Impossible difficulty.

Regardless, of how accurate my perception of my absolute success rate of Blockades, I am even more certain of the relative success rate of Blockade versus Patrol.

Patrol has a success rate way less than 50%. Maybe even 10% at best.

So here's the question. If I Blockade and ships pay my toll to get through very very often, why does Patrolling seem to rarely yield an encounter??

I really notice this when I am running low on water-fuel while Blockading. I always want to snag a few ships (via Patrol) to steal some WF. But it just doesn't seem to be a stable strategy.

So what's up? Is it because the toll-paying ships under Blockade basically come to you willingly while ships that see you Patrolling assume you are going to gut them and thus avoid you stridently?

Or am I completely wrong, and the underlying random variables really are close and I just don't see it?

Thanks!

[Cory Trese]

Patrol does not incur any Rep cost, impact Conflict or suffer cascading effects from alliances.

Patrol does not cause automatic hostility from Faction and defense-class AI ships.

Patrol is a more cautious bet, compared to Blockade which is aggressive.

Also, Patrol has a lower chance of attracting aggressive AI and Aliens.

I question what you mean by "success" with Blockade.

In my mind, successful Blockade is selecting a target correctly so that revenue is generated, not an encounter.

If you are saying a combat is success I actually refer to that as "failure" which means that you are saying, even at level 20 you are unable to raise your success rate above 50%, which to me indicates you are selecting the wrong upgrades and ship configuration for optimum blockade. I would estimate that an optimal configuration will yield revenue about 75% of the time and an encounter about 25%, give or take.

[jadraki]

Excellent, that clears it up and with a good rationale.

yeah, good point on defining "success". For Blockade I do consider "success" to be no-combat and yes-$.

Thanks!!

[prideofcadar]

Then how do you hunt an alien ship?

[Cory Trese]

Patrol Dead / Gas Giant Planets [During an Alien Rumor]

Or Patrol over a Wild Planet [During an Alien Rumor]

[slayernz]

Also game difficulty severely affects the odds of alien encounters. Don't expect to bump into any on Basic or Normal. They begin to be "common" on Crazy and above where common = an encounter every 20 - 50 game years

[Cory Trese]

Well look, this is because so many people e-mailed and complained about them on Basic and Normal.

I love/hate the Aliens. I despise the Narvidians for what they did to the Star Traders.