Post by drspendlove on Aug 31, 2019 7:30:41 GMT -5
Once my E-techs hit rank 8, I no longer struggle to find contacts for anything, ever. I go from a scarcity of contacts where I consider my contact acquiring options including buying introductions, to just passively not having to care about getting contacts because I have all of them that I could ever want. This is because Listening Post gives me a contact nearly every time I land on a planet. Let's look at some math with a moderately high number of E-techs, common on larger ships:
Note that Electronics at Rank 8 with no skill bonus is 7 points. This gets more extreme as they level, of course. Also note that there is a 13 week cooldown for this talent and I'll assume we're landing on a planet every 4 weeks. Let's start with the best-case scenario:
If I have 6+ E-techs I have about an 67% chance of getting a contact on my first planet landing (none on cooldown): (1 - (0.1 + 0.01 * Electronics_Rank8)^6) = 0.673
If I have 5 E-techs with the talent ready for the next landfall (1 - (0.1 + 0.01 * 7)^5) = 0.606
Now 4: (1 - (0.1 + 0.01 * 7)^4) = 0.525
Now 3: (1 - (0.1 + 0.01 * 7)^3) = 0.428
These are pretty high odds for getting contacts, and at this point my odds are about 50% or better per landing as the initial talents come up from cooldown. But let's do the math for all cases. Let's call 0.1 + 0.01 * 7 just 0.17, as it is and do 4 landings. Probability of not getting a contact individually is 0.83.
Probability of 4 Contacts in 4 landings = (1 - 0.83^6) * (1 - 0.83^5) * (1 - 0.83^4) * (1 - 0.83^3) = 9.2%
Probability of 3 Contacts in 4 landings = (1 - 0.83^6) * (1 - 0.83^5) * (1 - 0.83^4) * 0.83^3 +
(1 - 0.83^6) * (1 - 0.83^5) * 0.83^4 * (1 - 0.83^4) +
(1 - 0.83^6) * 0.83^5 * (1 - 0.83^5) * (1 - 0.83^4) +
0.83^6 * (1 - 0.83^6) * (1 - 0.83^5) * (1 - 0.83^4) = 37.9%
Probability of 2 Contacts in 4 landings = (1 - 0.83^6) * (1 - 0.83^5) * 0.83^4 * 0.83^4 +
(1 - 0.83^6) * 0.83^5 * (1 - 0.83^5) * 0.83^4 +
0.83^6 * (1 - 0.83^6) * (1 - 0.83^5) * 0.83^4 +
(1 - 0.83^6) * 0.83^5 * 0.83^5 * (1 - 0.83^5) +
0.83^6 * (1 - 0.83^6) * 0.83^5 * (1 - 0.83^5) +
0.83^6 * 0.83^6 * (1 - 0.83^6) * (1 - 0.83^5) = 39.1%
Probability of 1 Contact in 4 landings = (0.83^6)^3 * (1 - 0.83^6) +
(0.83^6)^2 * (1 - 0.83^6) * 0.83^5 +
0.83^6 * (1 - 0.83^6) * (0.83^5)^2 +
(1 - 0.83^6) * (0.83^5)^3 = 12.7%
Probability of 0 Contacts in 4 landings = (0.83^6)^4 = 1.1%
Average number of contacts per 4 landings = 0.092 * 4 + 0.379 * 3 + 0.391 * 2 + 0.127 = 2.4 Contacts
Let's play it a little conservatively and say that we then get 2 contacts continually every 13 weeks. That's so many contacts from just the E-Techs. It makes the entire nuanced process trivial because this is a passive effect from an activity that you must do to survive.
Suggestion: Make this trigger from positive spying results (10 + double Electronics skill)% of the time. It's still a listening post but now requires deliberate action rather than passive "Oh gee, more contacts I don't need."
Note that Electronics at Rank 8 with no skill bonus is 7 points. This gets more extreme as they level, of course. Also note that there is a 13 week cooldown for this talent and I'll assume we're landing on a planet every 4 weeks. Let's start with the best-case scenario:
If I have 6+ E-techs I have about an 67% chance of getting a contact on my first planet landing (none on cooldown): (1 - (0.1 + 0.01 * Electronics_Rank8)^6) = 0.673
If I have 5 E-techs with the talent ready for the next landfall (1 - (0.1 + 0.01 * 7)^5) = 0.606
Now 4: (1 - (0.1 + 0.01 * 7)^4) = 0.525
Now 3: (1 - (0.1 + 0.01 * 7)^3) = 0.428
These are pretty high odds for getting contacts, and at this point my odds are about 50% or better per landing as the initial talents come up from cooldown. But let's do the math for all cases. Let's call 0.1 + 0.01 * 7 just 0.17, as it is and do 4 landings. Probability of not getting a contact individually is 0.83.
Probability of 4 Contacts in 4 landings = (1 - 0.83^6) * (1 - 0.83^5) * (1 - 0.83^4) * (1 - 0.83^3) = 9.2%
Probability of 3 Contacts in 4 landings = (1 - 0.83^6) * (1 - 0.83^5) * (1 - 0.83^4) * 0.83^3 +
(1 - 0.83^6) * (1 - 0.83^5) * 0.83^4 * (1 - 0.83^4) +
(1 - 0.83^6) * 0.83^5 * (1 - 0.83^5) * (1 - 0.83^4) +
0.83^6 * (1 - 0.83^6) * (1 - 0.83^5) * (1 - 0.83^4) = 37.9%
Probability of 2 Contacts in 4 landings = (1 - 0.83^6) * (1 - 0.83^5) * 0.83^4 * 0.83^4 +
(1 - 0.83^6) * 0.83^5 * (1 - 0.83^5) * 0.83^4 +
0.83^6 * (1 - 0.83^6) * (1 - 0.83^5) * 0.83^4 +
(1 - 0.83^6) * 0.83^5 * 0.83^5 * (1 - 0.83^5) +
0.83^6 * (1 - 0.83^6) * 0.83^5 * (1 - 0.83^5) +
0.83^6 * 0.83^6 * (1 - 0.83^6) * (1 - 0.83^5) = 39.1%
Probability of 1 Contact in 4 landings = (0.83^6)^3 * (1 - 0.83^6) +
(0.83^6)^2 * (1 - 0.83^6) * 0.83^5 +
0.83^6 * (1 - 0.83^6) * (0.83^5)^2 +
(1 - 0.83^6) * (0.83^5)^3 = 12.7%
Probability of 0 Contacts in 4 landings = (0.83^6)^4 = 1.1%
Average number of contacts per 4 landings = 0.092 * 4 + 0.379 * 3 + 0.391 * 2 + 0.127 = 2.4 Contacts
Let's play it a little conservatively and say that we then get 2 contacts continually every 13 weeks. That's so many contacts from just the E-Techs. It makes the entire nuanced process trivial because this is a passive effect from an activity that you must do to survive.
Suggestion: Make this trigger from positive spying results (10 + double Electronics skill)% of the time. It's still a listening post but now requires deliberate action rather than passive "Oh gee, more contacts I don't need."