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Post by Cory Trese on Aug 9, 2012 9:18:39 GMT -5
I can assure you that the Conflict generator doesn't work this way.
I mean, I'm looking at the code and here is what I can tell you:
- Assassination causes a 2% chance of triggering a Solar or Trade War
- Conflicts Between Houses and Syndicates are 30% more common and House v. House or Syndicate v. Syndicate
- 80% of the time Trade Wars almost cause a Shortage on a nearby planet
- 60% of the time Alliances cause a Surplus on a nearby planet
- Trading Records During Spy War can increase the duration of the spy war -- or end it
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BlastGT1
Templar
[ Heroes of Steel Supporter ]
Turning ships into shards with Alchemy
Posts: 920 
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Post by BlastGT1 on Aug 12, 2012 0:07:30 GMT -5
Even my IRC bot's scripts that perform random quotes or actions unfortunately often don't act as randomly as they should. Getting the same quote twice in a row when there are 20+ choices happens more often than I care to admit, occasionally prompting me to boot it from the channel, just because I can.
Edit: Now I know I saw more posts in this thread before I posted, yet now rabidbite's seem to have disappeared, how odd.
I'm tired of customizing sigs every time I flash a ROM. This time it's plain old Torp City!
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shallowthought
Exemplar
[ Patreon & Star Traders 2 Supporter ]
Posts: 382
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Post by shallowthought on Aug 12, 2012 6:33:04 GMT -5
With a good random number generator, you SHOULD get the same number twice in a row. With 20 options, it should happen 1 in 20 times.
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BlastGT1
Templar
[ Heroes of Steel Supporter ]
Turning ships into shards with Alchemy
Posts: 920
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Post by BlastGT1 on Aug 12, 2012 8:50:24 GMT -5
You do have a point there, but when it becomes 3 out of 5 or seems like it repeats too frequently for my liking, I get annoyed. I guess ruling out too many repeats would require scripting that also remembers previous choices and removes them from the list until all options have been used, which would then mean it is no longer a truly random script.
I'm tired of customizing sigs every time I flash a ROM. This time it's plain old Torp City!
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shallowthought
Exemplar
[ Patreon & Star Traders 2 Supporter ]
Posts: 382
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Post by shallowthought on Aug 12, 2012 10:55:55 GMT -5
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Post by grävling on Aug 12, 2012 12:36:01 GMT -5
Wow, that dice-o-matic! Thank you for posting that link!!
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Post by Cory Trese on Aug 12, 2012 15:30:17 GMT -5
It is odd that you can remove the initial post from a thread and the reply comments just hang out. We do our best to generate random numbers but they're never completely random -- nothing made by your average computer randomizer ever is  |
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shallowthought
Exemplar
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Posts: 382
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Post by shallowthought on Aug 12, 2012 17:07:14 GMT -5
You sure? From what I understand, in linux, /dev/rand contains true random numbers, generated from measurements of electrical noise within the processor, and /dev/urand contains pseudo-random numbers seeded from /dev/rand. That means that rand can run out of numbers, but is what you want for good cryptography, but urand, while being slightly less random, is good enough for most purposes and will never run out.
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Post by Cory Trese on Aug 12, 2012 19:17:40 GMT -5
I suppose I should have put my normal caveat on that statement ...
"they're never completely random if you intend to use core Android SDK functions, support all Android OS versions from 1.6 to 4.1, include support for all device hardware, avoid any application permissions, enable the ST engine to hit current performance targets and use standard Java"
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Post by Cory Trese on Aug 12, 2012 19:19:03 GMT -5
The class we use ultimately wraps the Android version of /dev/urand and generates pseudo-random numbers. They're still not random enough for some people tho
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jadraki
Curator
[ Heroes of Steel Supporter ]
Posts: 32
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Post by jadraki on Aug 12, 2012 21:51:45 GMT -5
"They're still not random enough for some people tho"
As an economist who does a lot of monte carlo simulation and as an armchair consumer of psychology, I don't think it is possible to ever win this battle. People are notoriously terrible at perceiving or generating true 'random' and our cognitive biases (particularly confirmation bias) means that your stochastic output will always be either too random or not random enough.
Recursive humor for the day: Am I an amazing AI with the most amazing random blog post that I could blow away any Turing test? How often should I do amazing blog posts to seem human?
Love the game, take care
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Post by rabidbite on Aug 13, 2012 6:35:33 GMT -5
ACK. Wtheck? Sorry, was trying to clarify some points and somehow ended up deleting the original post. Sheesh.
Cory is talking about a statement I stated that Conflict Generator isn't so random, because I get a lot of "trade embargoes" that pop up the instant I load up and stat heading to a faction in particular. He has stated things dont' work like that, THOUGH, he has also stated the Conflict Generator ISN'T completely random either. Thus, the info he posted.
rabid
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Post by fallen on Aug 13, 2012 11:06:32 GMT -5
It isn't completely random (Quadrant politics are at work here!), but it isn't completely malicious either. Does that help =)
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Post by fallen on Aug 14, 2012 8:29:21 GMT -5
rabidbite - you made my day. Thank you for wrapping my snide remarks in amazing Star Traders fiction.
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Post by rabidbite on Aug 14, 2012 8:32:10 GMT -5
rabidbite - you made my day. Thank you for wrapping my snide remarks in amazing Star Traders fiction. Ack I was modifying it too, but you posted and read too fast  |
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